Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season.
Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Erik ten Hag's Manchester United...
Wounded from an underwhelming start to the season and a recent 3-0 loss to Andoni Iraola’s AFC Bournemouth, Manchester United are a vulnerable but dangerous side to come up against right now.
Things haven't run smoothly for Erik ten Hag since the Dutchman swapped Amsterdam for Arndale but, as will always be the case with the 20-times league winners, there is some exceptional quality within the Red Devils’ squad. Bruno Fernandes, Luke Shaw and Marcus Rashford possess enough talent alone to turn any game and Ten Hag’s side have been able to muster up enough defensive solidity to quietly pick up results and maintain a healthy league position despite often appearing unconvincing.
Thinking of key players with the talent to turn things around brings us to the two biggest issues that Ten Hag has had to face this season: Form and fitness. Whilst Shaw has typically struggled to stay fit, Rashford had desperately struggled for form. His 17 goals and five assists in the league last season underlined just how important he is to this team but coming up to the halfway point in 2023/24 and Rashford has just two league goals, one assist, and a recent bout of the horrible winter Norovirus to his name. That kind of state of affairs that will make some Hammers cringe as they read as fears emerge about this being the match where it all turns around... After all, he did score the winner at Old Trafford last season, so Rashford-induced heartache is a familiar enough feeling already.
Another shift that Ten Hag has had to deal with this season has been the form of Casemiro. An elite talent and key player in previous seasons for both Manchester United and Real Madrid, Casemiro’s athleticism has somewhat betrayed him this term and, without his defensive ability to cover some of the cracks that appear in a midfield that often also contains a not-so-youthful Christian Eriksen, Manchester United can find themselves getting played through a little too easily at times.
Summer signing Mason Mount was probably seen as a solution here, his off-ball work rate is one of his strongest traits, but he hasn't really got going in red just yet and is currently out injured alongside yet another vitally important player, Lisandro Martínez.
If you’d been told at the end of last season that Jonny Evans would end up starting for Manchester United by the midway point of the following season, most would’ve responded with incredulity. But with Martínez, Harry Maguire, and Victor Lindelöf all out recently, Evans has made his way back in fairytale fashion after an eight-year gap and two relegations with West Bromwich Albion and Leicester City. Those relegations can't be placed solely on his shoulders, Evans was a top player for both clubs, and at 35 years of age the Northern Irishman is still capable of turning out quality performances at the highest level, as he showed last weekend in Manchester United's 0-0 draw with Liverpool at Anfield.
When looking for weaknesses that line up with West Ham’s strengths under David Moyes, that Bournemouth game should fill Hammers with hope. Ten Hag’s team were hopelessly exposed to counters as they gave up possession in build-up for Bournemouth’s first two and then lost any chance of a fightback when Marcos Senesei crashed home from a corner. Music to our carefully trained West Ham ears.
Pressing was crucial to this victory for Iraola’s team though. Bournemouth engaged aggressively against Manchester United’s build-up and found ways to manipulate the play and create high turnover opportunities. This might not come completely naturally to Moyes’ side, who are perhaps more familiar with dropping off, defending the box, and breaking from deep, but with a hugely positive out of possession performance against Wolves still fresh in the memory – Moyes’ side recorded 9.24 PPDA in that fixture, their fourth best figure of the season but possibly their most intense press, given the lower totals came against Everton, Luton Town, and Nottingham Forest, teams that all recorded much higher long passing rates – West Ham would be wise to attempt to disrupt Ten Hag’s build-up and expose some of the fragility that can pop up in this area.
This is one of those fixtures that you mark down in the calendar and look forward to with equal parts excitement and dread. Hopefully West Ham make this Christmas a memorable one with a big three points.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
