Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United could use a repeat performance from previous victories over Arsenal this season to defeat Mikel Arteta’s side this afternoon...
After losing twice to West Ham United already this season, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will be out for revenge when the two teams meet again this afternoon. Energised by a brilliant 3-1 win over Liverpool last weekend that took them within two points of the Premier League leaders, the Gunners will prove stiff opposition for a David Moyes team that has struggled in front of goal in 2024 so far.
In our first piece about Arsenal, prior to West Ham’s 3-1 EFL Cup Round of 16 victory over them in November, we talked about how the areas of focus had shifted for Arteta’s team. In the 2022/23 season they had been an almost uncontainable attacking force but going into 2023/24 their forward-thinking zeal had faded somewhat and been replaced with a steeliness in defence that few teams in the division could match. The xG difference data, which compares the volume and quality of chances a team creates against the chances they concede, had improved but it felt as though a team playing David Moyes’ style – a low block tough for any team to crack – might be able to keep them at bay and produce something on the counter.
Four months on and things have changed again. The Gunners seem to have recaptured some of that brightness going forward and have moved back up to fourth in the league for npxG per 90 at 1.73, 0.38 more than it was in November, a measure of improvement equivalent to the current distance between Liverpool and Everton as attacking forces. With their defensive dominance continuing – Arsenal still boast the strongest defence in the league with just 0.7 npxG conceded per game (1st), 0.91 goals conceded per game (1st), and 8.74 shots conceded per game (2nd) — their xG difference has soared to +1.16 per 90, 0.16 clear at the top of the league.
Clearly, beating Arsenal twice already this season has been a huge achievement, adding a third consecutive victory would constitute a minor miracle but this doesn’t lie beyond the realm of possibility for the current West Ham team.
If we think of West Ham’s two main threats as being counter-attacks and corners, the numbers surrounding Arsenal raise immediate concerns. Of the top four at the time of writing (Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa), Arsenal concede the fewest counters at just 1.78 per 90 and the fewest corners at 2.78 per game. Curiously though, when they do concede opportunities of this variety, they give up shots at a higher rate than other teams with 43.5% of counters and 36% of corners ending in shots.
Unfortunately, digging into the corners a little further reveals just three headed goals conceded by Arsenal all season, the third fewest in the division. Luton got two in a 3-4 defeat in December and Konstantinos Mavropanos scored the other one in West Ham’s 2-0 win at the Emirates. That goal will have to be the blueprint for production from set-pieces where both delivery and finish need to be immaculate.
Looking at counters brings few contrasting positives, Arsenal have conceded just one goal on the break since October and have only allowed six shots from attacks of this variety over the last three months. The 3-2 base from which they attack allows them to block up the middle of the pitch and make it extremely difficult for teams to surge forward in rapid fashion. With the central zones blocked, teams are forced wide, and with Gabriel, William Saliba, Ben White, and Declan Rice all racing back, Arsenal have the perfect combination of athleticism and quality to comfortably deal with these scenarios.
So how have West Ham managed to beat them twice already? More than anything, that’s been built on outstanding defensive performances. Sitting deep in a 4-2-3-1, or 4-4-2 when either the centre-backs or Declan Rice receive the ball, Moyes’ side have been able to block up access to the centre of the pitch themselves before doubling up out wide on each side to make chance creation difficult. If the wingers opt to come back inside, space on the edge of the box is then compacted by Edson Álvarez, Tomáš Souček, and James Ward-Prowse, and if they opt to deliver from wide, Álvarez and Souček will both drop into the box to complete a physically imperious unit of four alongside the centre-backs.
When Arsenal were able to break through, much like several other teams this season, they then discovered a brick wall in Alphonse Areola. The Frenchman has saved four goals above expectation this season and his +0.22 psxG overperformance per 90 is only beaten by two other Premier League goalkeepers: Newcastle’s Martin Dúbravka (+0.3) and Spurs’ Guglielmo Vicario (+0.24).
If West Ham are to complete the set with a third win over Arsenal, Areola will need to continue to produce his best behind a defensive unit at their top level and, crucially, with Arsenal giving up so few chances compared to other sides, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen will need to recapture their cutting edge in front of goal. The pair both sit in the top ten for xG overperformance this season (Kudus: +3.9 – 3rd, Bowen: +2.8 – 8th) but the team has underperformed in front of goal in all of the last four Premier League fixtures and will need this form to turn in order to secure a positive result today.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
