Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how the Eagles’ visit to London Stadium could play out...
Sitting 15th in the league table and on a difficult run with just one win in their last five games at the time of writing, Crystal Palace have thus far struggled to build on their impressive finish to the 2023/24 season under Austrian manager Oliver Glasner. It was in that brilliant end to the season that they accrued 19 of their 49 points in their last seven games, translating to 39% of their points total in just 18% of the league season. No two players were more crucial in producing that stunning form than Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. Playing at the points of the box that Glasner creates in the centre of the pitch, Eze and Olise had the perfect blend of creativity, speed and tactical understanding to drift into dangerous spaces before combining with target forward Jean-Philippe Mateta to generate attacking advantage for Palace. Whilst Mateta and Eze have continued in the side this season, the loss of Olise has had seismic consequences for Palace’s attack and their subsequent ability to control momentum within games.
Scoring ten goals last season and assisting six times, with one of each of those coming in a stunning 5-2 win against West Ham at Selhurst Park in the spring, Olise grew too impactful to remain in South London and moved on to Bayern Munich in the summer. The Frenchman is already on track to beat his tally from last season, ranking fourth in the German top-flight for combined goals and assists amongst attacking midfielders and wingers, and Palace’s attempts to replace his influence in the transfer market have been unsuccessful. Former Watford winger Ismaïla Sarr and previous West Ham tormentor Daichi Kamada have had their moments but they have been unable to replicate the incredible contribution of Olise.
Sarr is more likely to be a threat in behind, complementing Eze’s ability to create and Mateta’s ability to pin defenders, whilst Kamada is more likely to drop towards the midfielders, pulling markers forward and creating more room for Eze to roam and exploit between the lines. It’s clear that they might not have the verve of Olise, nor the kind of transformational ability that can win a game alone, but the crucial element that both of these players lack is the flexibility that Olise had shown in dropping deep, running in behind and operating just as comfortably in the half-spaces as he did on the flanks. This combination of abilities made Palace’s system much less predictable, giving defenders a far more challenging job when attempting to track runners and limit opportunities to exploit space between the lines and in behind.
Despite this, Palace have maintained the approach we grew accustomed to following Glasner’s appointment in mid-February last year. He builds the base of his team with three centre-backs flanked by two wing-backs with a midfield double-pivot in front. This leaves the three attackers, two wingers and a centre-forward, on the opposition back-line, and this structure transforms as Palace gain control of the ball. Glasner likes his wing-backs to provide width in attack, so both Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Muñoz push high and wide, leaving the three centre-backs as the in-possession base. To create space down the flanks for the wing-backs, Eze and Sarr move inside the pitch to become the two advanced points of the box, creating the dominant 3-box-3 structure we see from so many Premier League teams.
Palace certainly don’t lack attacking talent and pose a significant threat in transitional moments with the trio of Eze, Sarr and Mateta capable of linking up quickly through the middle to capitalise on high turnovers. However, in more settled play, they’ve struggled to gain territory with any real consistency. Palace aren’t a possession-dominant team but an alarming proportion of their possession, the fifth highest in the league, comes in their defensive third, with only the thirteenth-highest rate in the midfield third. This is a distinct change from last season where Palace were seven places lower for their defensive third touch proportion and had the seventh highest rate in midfield. The losses of Joachim Andersen to Fulham and Adam Wharton to a groin injury mean Palace have lost a significant portion of the progressive ability they had last season, and they can find themselves stuck in their own third more often as a result. This combines negatively with the aforementioned comparable inflexibility of Sarr and Kamada and their inability to replicate the unpredictability of Olise.
Whilst we’ve explored Palace’s weakened attack this season, their drop-off in the physical duels might be even more significant when assessing their worsened performance in the league. Andersen may have done lots of the progressive work with his unique ability to play laser-accurate diagonals into the final third but the loss of his duel-dominance at the heart of Glasner’s back three has arguably been more impactful. Andersen won 74.4% of his attempted tackles and 65.9% of his aerial duels last season and his replacement Maxence Lacroix hasn’t been able to match those impressive levels, with 65.5% success in the tackle and just 55.6% success in the air.
They might have improved the physical profiles in this area to deal with runners in behind – Lacroix and Guehi are impressively quick – but Palace have become weaker to long balls and crosses, making it harder for the Eagles to defend their box and establish settled possession.
Whether West Ham can exploit this is a different question, with three senior forwards unavailable. This likely only highlights the importance of Tomáš Souček further, as the Czech midfielder sits third in the West Ham squad this season for non-penalty expected goals (3.2) and showed just how much he can contribute as a box-crasher yet again in recent matches. Equally, Lucas Paquetá’s ability to win physical duels and pick up good spaces around the box to attack cutbacks could be vital.
Palace might be playing without the fluency that they showed at the end of last season but they still boast a squad full of impressive talent. With players like Eze, Mateta and Marc Guehi all likely to be on the pitch, this remains a difficult assignment for new manager Graham Potter as he navigates an injury crisis whilst trying to build on three points picked up against Fulham in midweek.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
