Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how the Red Devils’ visit to London Stadium could play out...
It seems as though Manchester United have been running in place on their journey to return to the level expected of a club their size. One of the key obstacles to Manchester United's progress has been the persistent injury issues they've faced over the last 18 months. With so many players across their backline and midfield struggling with recurring injuries, it naturally creates a lack of consistency in selection, which in turn has undoubtedly impacted their consistency of performance.
Erik ten Hag has already been forced to field four entirely different defences this season, with Noussair Mazraoui, Diogo Dalot, and Lisandro Martínez all having been forced to play out of position, while Jonny Evans has been drafted in to cover the gaps. This issue is compounded by five different midfield combinations so far, and while Christian Eriksen, Bruno Fernandes, and Casemiro helped secure a 2-1 win over Brentford in their last match, we may not see the same trio again, as Casemiro limped off late with a suspected calf injury.
Consistency is also hard to achieve when a system demands near-perfect execution from the players at all times when they don’t have the ball. And, despite Ten Hag's commitment to a high press at the top of the pitch, United are often found lacking the requisite numbers in the press to effectively force high turnovers. The gaps that then open up between the pressing unit and the backline can become too large, making it difficult for a group of experienced but ageing midfielders to cover the space – especially in a Premier League packed with athletic players in the middle of the park. Despite the Dutch manager’s insistence on attempting to press, United's average of 11.55 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) still only ranks them in the league’s bottom half, suggesting they lack the intensity required to cause problems for opponents in their own half.
Ten Hag has also been vocal about his desire for his Manchester United side to become the ‘best transition team in the world’ – a goal made eminently more achievable with gifted direct attackers like Alejandro Garnacho and Marcus Rashford being in the squad as both possess incredible speed. Despite this focus, we rarely see him adopt the mid-to-low block that we often see from sides with a tactical focus on counter-attacking. Dropping off with a deeper defensive line naturally invites pressure from opponents, which in turn creates space behind the opposition defence for faster players to exploit, especially if you are blessed with the often-reliable delivery of players like Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes. This is an approach we often saw under former United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær, though the consequential downside was a lack of control – something we expect as standard from teams that are competing for the Champions League spots. Naturally, without more control of the ball, teams have less control over the variables in play, another thing that can derail a team’s efforts to generate consistency.
Across Ten Hag’s two full seasons at the helm, United have averaged just 52.1% possession, compared to the 55.7% recorded during Solskjær's final full campaign as manager, suggesting United’s ability to control matches has waned rather than improved, no doubt contributing to the lack of rhythm the Red Devils often seem to suffer on the pitch.
Until this approach becomes more consistent, Manchester United will remain a side that are vulnerable due to their lack of physical output in midfield, a lack of coherence in the press, and an insistence on attacking from an aggressive base that perhaps lacks the mobile destroyer it requires. Two of those issues have been glaring in at least five of the nine goals they’ve conceded this season, most notably in those games against Spurs and Liverpool, where both teams ruthlessly exposed the lack of speed in the United midfield. Micky van de Ven’s bulldozing run through the centre of the pitch for Spurs’ first goal laid these issues bare in almost awkward fashion, particularly given that FC Twente right-back, Bart van Rooij, had been the beneficiary of the exact same issues just four days earlier in their Europa League clash at Old Trafford. All three of Liverpool’s goals came from high turnovers, where Arne Slot’s wide players were then able to expose United’s two-one base in possession.
These examples should provide inspiration to a West Ham side that boasts serious quality in wide areas post-turnover, particularly through players like Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville. It’s a shame that Mohammed Kudus is suspended, as his talents would’ve also been excellent for Lopetegui to have at his disposal for this fixture, but thankfully Bowen’s potency on the counter is multi-faceted. He functions well as an initial outlet from turnovers, receiving an average of 5.6 progressive passes per 90, and after receiving and retaining the ball, he’s regularly able to progress the team up the pitch at speed, ranking in the top 9% for progressive carries and successful take-ons among his positional peers in the Premier League.
The Hammers also possess unique press-breaking quality in central defence, with both Maximilian Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo being comfortable carrying the ball through the opposition press, opening up passing angles and aiding our build-up play. Like Bowen, the centre-back pairing are equally adept at helping to launch attacks following turnovers, with Todibo ranking among the top 25% of centre-backs across Europe for both progressive carries and progressive passes across his last year of football, and Kilman ranking well within the same bracket following his impressive start to life at the London Stadium.
Whilst Manchester United are a side that still seem to be in transition, the level of quality in their squad will mean that Lopetegui’s team will have to be at their best to secure all three points. Thankfully, Lopetegui has more than enough talent to call on to exploit the kinks in the Red Devils’ armour and get the kind of result that could easily kickstart a positive run of form.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
