Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season.
Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Gary O'Neil's Wolverhampton Wanderers...
After a bright start, with some unfortunate refereeing decisions denying them more points on the board, Wolves currently sit on 19 points in 13th place.
Gary O’Neil’s side have won plenty of admirers already this season, no doubt thanks to a cast of exciting players who are all very easy on the eye. In Matheus Cunha, Pablo Sarabia, Mario Lemina, Hwang Hee-chan and Pedro Neto, Wolves have got some fantastically dynamic and skillful players in midfield and attack. This dovetails nicely, in old school Premier League fashion, with the defensive solidity offered by former Hammer Craig Dawson and captain Max Kilman at the back – the West Midlands club have landed on a nice mix of functional pieces and raw talent.
The clear standout strength of this Wolves side is the number of confident carriers they have in the team, something West Ham have lacked a little bit since Declan Rice’s transfer to Arsenal. Wolves top the charts this season so far for number of take-on attempts with a slightly absurd 384 dribbles attempted already – 109 more than West Ham. Most impressively though, they’ve tried this many take-ons whilst maintaining the second-best success rate in the division, just 2.4% behind Manchester City on 51%.
This is also where you see the clear emphasis on ‘Only dribbling when it’s on’ under David Moyes as his side comes in third with 50.5% success – 10.7% more than a more open and expansive side like Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton from 67 fewer attempts.
Wolves’ carrying is well spread throughout the team with Cunha, Neto and Hwang all contributing huge numbers up front backed up by Nelson Semedo and Rayan Aït-Nouri from full-back (or wing-back), and Lemina and João Gomes through the middle.
This level of 1v1 ability throughout the team – even Toti Gomes likes a run forward from left-centre-back – adds huge unpredictability to Wolves’ build-up and general in-possession play. Pressing O’Neil’s side into a cul-de-sac is less effective than it is against other sides because one player can suddenly burst through a gap and open things up. Resultantly, defending teams have to be careful when pressing in close to these players to ensure that they don’t get breezed beyond – something that Moyes’ midfielders will have to be cognisant of throughout this match.
Thankfully, the revitalised and newly effervescent Neto is unlikely to be available for today’s match due to a recent injury setback, but Sarabia has been doing a solid job since coming into the side to deputise and the Spaniard adds creative spark to Wolves’ midfield by dropping out of forward positions to pick passes through to find Hwang and Cunha on their regular runs in behind opposition defences.
This manipulation of the backline, with constant rotations and changes in depth, will necessitate huge levels of concentration from the West Ham defence to avoid situations like that which we encountered for Fulham’s fifth last Sunday – where Harry Wilson surged beyond the defensive line as Emerson and Nayef Aguerd got disconnected from one another thanks to slight drops initiated by Carlos Vinícius and Andreas Pereira.
Before beginning to look for possible chinks in Wolves’ and O’Neil’s armour, it’s also worth briefly discussing the important distributing roles played by Lemina, Toti and Kilman. Following a recent switch to a back-three shape, Dawson has been anchoring the defence while Toti and Kilman push forward either side to supply the midfielders and forwards.
Toti is more of a carrier, where Kilman can be more adventurous with his passing, attempting more switches and balls direct to the striker. Lemina seems to be the main threat on current form, though, as the Gabonese midfielder takes the ball off the backline to find the forwards in positive positions; his positioning, strength in the duels, and composure on the ball combine to make him an incredibly important player in O’Neil’s side.
Watching their most recent fixture against Nottingham Forest revealed just how key he is with 92.3% passing accuracy alongside seven successful passes to the final third – progression at virtually no cost to security.
When delving into some of the things that have gone wrong so far this season for Wolves, the first and most obvious of these is the number of penalties they have conceded – only Brighton can match their five spot-kicks conceded so far. All-round discipline in the tackle hasn’t been great as O’Neil’s side sit third for total yellow cards (47), joint-second for reds (three), and top for fouls conceded (209). This could make Moyes’ dribbling threats particularly important for this match with Kudus and Lucas Paqueta’s ability to draw fouls in good positions a potential way to generate a more than usual amount of positive attacking dead-ball situations for James Ward-Prowse to make use of.
Secondarily, Wolves have conceded far too many goals from low crosses and cutbacks. Teams have found it far too easy to get in behind the full-backs and attack the byline. Right from Raphaël Varane’s winning goal on the opening weekend – when Aaron Wan-Bissaka managed to creep in behind Aït-Nouri (with a huge gap between the Algerian and Kilman) to dink a cross to the back post – through to Arsenal’s second just a couple of weeks ago, though this did take some outstanding combination play to expose the space behind Semedo, byline runs have been a huge problem.
Unfortunately, this isn’t something that Moyes has made much use of over his stint at West Ham with a clear preference for wingers that come inside rather than players capable of going both ways. Though perhaps Emerson and Vladimír Coufal could attack those spaces aggressively to exploit some of the positional lapses that seem to occur across Wolves’ backline.
