Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season.
Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Eddie Howe’s Magpies...
Newcastle United come into this match in a positive vein of form having gone six games unbeaten in all competitions with wins against Brentford, Sheffield United, Manchester City, and Burnley, and a draw against AC Milan and thumping victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League. The Magpies have built on what they achieved last season by continuing to focus on a high-pressing approach with a couple of additions to improve competition and rotation options in Harvey Barnes, Sandro Tonali, Tino Livramento, and boyhood fan Lewis Hall.
Unfortunately for Eddie Howe, despite this investment in the group to improve rotatability with Champions League games to deal with, Newcastle are currently struggling with injuries and are likely to be missing several key players in this fixture. Sven Botman, who has been imperious since arriving from Lille in the 2022 summer transfer window, Joe Willock, Callum Wilson, Joelinton, and Barnes are all doubts or worse with various complaints. Simultaneously, Anthony Gordon, who has had a huge positive effect on Newcastle’s press and has added great effervescence to Howe’s attack, will also be unavailable through suspension after the England U21 international picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the 2-0 win over Burnley last weekend.
Still, Howe has plenty of excellent players to call on and one of Newcastle’s key strengths since the former Bournemouth manager arrived on Tyneside has been an enviable level of unity where players are keenly aware of their roles within the team and have adopted the correct mindset required to realise the potential of the tactical approach.
Breaking down how those tactics function is fairly simple as Newcastle have recorded an average PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) of 11.62 so far this season and a Challenge Intensity of 5.4. Those metrics rank Newcastle just above average for pressing intensity this season but a cursory look at their most recent performance against Burnley shows just how much Howe’s team commit to their attempts to win the ball back and do it as high up the pitch as possible.
As Vincent Kompany’s team tried to build-up from the back last weekend, Newcastle’s left-winger would disconnect from the opposition right-back and move to pressurise Burnley’s right-centre-back with striker Alexander Isak cutting off the left-centre-back and Miguel Almirón marking the left-back. Behind this, the man-to-man pressing system would fall into place with Newcastle left-central-midfielder, Elliot Anderson, taking over responsibility for the right-back and left-centre-back Fabian Schär stepping out of defence to take Anderson’s man in midfield.
This tight man-to-man structure makes it extremely difficult for any player to take any time on the ball in build-up as there is always pressure coming immediately from the man-marker whilst players in the surrounding zones will also collapse around the ball-carrier and make it difficult for that player to extricate themselves whilst retaining possession. For this reason, it is important to have players in the first and second line who are comfortable receiving under pressure and negating said pressure either by dribbling through it – particularly potent if you can roll the first press from behind – or by connecting with teammates with quick passing combinations that enable progression.
Thinking about these two things, a few West Ham players immediately come to mind… The first of those are Lucas Paquetá and Emerson Palmieri, who have already shown their incredible relationship on the pitch this season with regular rapid interchanges securing fluid progression down the left. Paquetá has completed by far the most progressive passes in the team so far this season with 41 – 20 more than the next player, Vladimír Coufal (21) – and the Brazilian also has the highest number of carries in the team with 270 – ahead of Emerson who sits second with 206. Their relationship will be crucial in coping with the intense pressure that comes on that side of the pitch from Almirón, Trippier, and Sean Longstaff.
Secondarily, though, the next player who comes to mind when thinking about press negation and dribbling through pressure, is new signing Mohammed Kudus. Kudus has already shown his aptitude for rolling off pressure to his back and converting promising opposition pressure into scything carries through the middle of the pitch. We can look at an example from the Lincoln City match, where Kudus turned away from Ethan Erhanon before skipping through Sean Roughan’s follow-up challenge, to capture this. In fact, Kudus produced a carbon copy of this manoeuvre in the 77th minute of our most recent Premier League game against Sheffield United by spinning beyond Luke Thomas and skipping over Jack Robinson’s tackle.
All three players, Paquetá, Emerson, and Kudus, could have important roles to play today as West Ham look to wriggle through Newcastle’s pressure and find opportunities to exploit the resultantly exposed backline.
It will also be crucial that Moyes’ side match Newcastle’s intensity in the tackle and, in a game that will almost certainly be duel-heavy, display the assertiveness required to win those battles and pick up the second balls to deny momentum – a crucial element of Newcastle’s winning formula.
