Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season.
Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United take advantage of Olympiacos when the Greek side do not properly clear danger...
After losing their away UEFA Europa League Group A fixture against tonight’s opposition, David Moyes’ team will be keen to bounce back with a win and a performance that is more representative of the quality in the side. In order to do so, the Hammers must take greater control by exhibiting improved patience and authority with the ball in combination with a defensive resoluteness that does not allow for the kind of mistakes seen in recent weeks.
In that 2-1 win over West Ham a couple of weeks ago, Olympiacos manager Diego Martínez managed to extract a performance from his side that contained the defensive quality required to spoil most advancement to the final third before battling ferociously when the game began to drift away in the last ten minutes. This kind of commitment will be required again if the Greek side wish to take maximum points tonight.
When looking for weaknesses, West Ham could draw inspiration from the way in which their opposition have struggled to properly clear the box from crosses in their Europa League campaign so far. Martínez’s side have been tough to break down but haven’t always been able to deal with lofted balls into the box late in games…
Miloš Pantović’s last-minute equaliser in TSC Bačka Topola’s 2-2 draw against Olympiacos came from a straight floated ball where a moment of indecision in the Olympiacos backline allowed Pantović to drift in, evading the offside trap, and score. Maximilian Philipp’s 86th-minute winner for Freiburg wasn’t dissimilar as Olympiacos failed to clear a corner and didn’t close down the striker quickly enough as the ball dropped. And it could’ve been a similar story in West Ham’s game a couple of weeks ago if Jackson Porozo hadn’t heroically stopped Tomáš Souček from scoring when the Czech midfielder ghosted into the penalty area to get on the end of Lucas Paquetá’s 97th-minute cross. That was after the Brazilian had himself scored when Quini failed to properly clear Michail Antonio’s cross in the 87th minute.
Of course, it’s vital that West Ham don’t simply rely on crosses for chance creation and, though Olympiacos have proven tough to break apart in general play, Moyes’ side must be willing to continually engage the half-space pockets between the Greek side’s centre-backs, full-backs, and defensive midfielders. It’s in these spaces that mistakes can arise as players can be unsure about who should take responsibility for closing the receiving player down.
Sometimes this indecision can force overcommitments where two players race to the same ball and these moments create opportunities for combination play and chance creation. It’s in these areas where players like Mohammed Kudus and Saïd Benrahma come alive and extracting more of a creative spark from the most technical players in the squad will be vital to securing a positive result tonight.
Additionally, Olympiacos have already conceded two goals in the group stage from losing the ball in their own build-up phase. Against TSC Bačka Topola, a loose pass from Panagiotis Retsos allowed Saša Jovanović and Ifet Djakovac to combine for the Serb’s first. And in the Freiburg match it was Nicolás Freire who sold his goalkeeper short, allowing Roland Sallai to pounce and finish. Pressing intensely might not be the most natural thing for this West Ham side but Freiburg’s early intensity at the Georgios Karaiskakis Football Stadium brought huge benefits – Christian Streich’s side recorded a PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 4.75 in the opening half-an-hour where West Ham recorded a much less intense 14.5 in the same period – and Moyes’ side are more than capable of producing similar results.
A higher PPDA shows a less intense press as the number represents the average number of passes the opposition is able to make between each defensive intervention.
The Hammers would be wise not to let their opposition settle as they did in Greece as it is clear that Martínez’s side struggle much more when put under intense pressure. TSC Bačka Topola’s goals came when Olympiacos’s PPDA dropped to 4.4 and West Ham were clearly much more impressive towards the end of the match in Greece when their PPDA was down at a slightly bonkers 1.8. Of course, these swings are indicative of changes of momentum in the games, but West Ham could force that shift in control by engaging more aggressively from the off, just as Freiburg did.
Three points tonight would take firm control of the group and ease pressure on the following two fixtures – a top, more intense, performance is needed.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
