Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how the Bees’ visit to London Stadium could play out...
Sat eleventh in the Premier League table, Brentford have had a successful season so far, despite losing star striker Ivan Toney to the Saudi Pro League in the summer and flying full-backs Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry to long-term injuries. Without those players, others have had to step up to help the team continue to be successful and nobody has done this quite as impressively as Mikkel Damsgaard. The Danish creative midfielder, scorer of a brilliant free-kick against England back at Euro 2020, has had a brilliant season so far and has a strong claim for most improved player across the entire division.
Damsgaard originally signed for Brentford from Sampdoria in 2022 and started out as a wide player before moving into more central positions later, and it’s in midfield where he has really come alive. For a long time, Thomas Frank’s side have relied on the creative quality of Mathias Jensen, and the tactics of set-piece coach Keith Andrews to score goals and win games, but Damsgaard’s recent development has given them a genuine progressive and creative midfielder to lean on for a different kind of chance creation. His 1.91 passes to the penalty area per 90 this season (in the top 24% of attacking midfielders in the Premier League), combined with 7.38 progressive passes (top 3%) and 0.7 through balls (top 6%), have been crucial in unlocking the full potential of forward Yoane Wissa, who has found a home in the central striking role since Toney’s departure.
Wissa’s 12 goals this season have won Brentford ten points alone, and when combined with the always threatening Bryan Mbeumo and one of effervescent duo Keane Lewis-Potter or Kevin Schade, also big developers this season, Brentford have a seriously dangerous frontline with excellent supply. It’ll be interesting to see how this could be reshaped when Brazilian target striker Igor Thiago returns from injury, a major summer signing himself after scoring 16 goals in the Belgian Pro League with Club Brugge.
Brentford’s significant team-wide development in attack this season has been paired with continued impressive defensive performance, helped in no small part by the individual growth of Irish centre-back Nathan Collins. This season, Collins has begun to repay the faith shown when the Bees signed him from Wolves, eradicating some errors and bringing that keenly sought after combination of progressive qualities with duel dominance from defence. His 65.5% aerial win rate this season places him in the top 23% of Premier League centre-backs and he simultaneously sits in the top 22% for ground duel success, in the top 41% for progressive passes and in the top 31% for progressive carries.
With Hickey and Henry often suffering with injuries either side of Collins, a lot has been asked of Kristoffer Ajer and Sepp van den Berg in the full-back areas. Both van den Berg and Ajer would probably consider themselves centre-backs by trade but they’ve done an admirable job in the wide slots at points this season, perhaps without the raw pace and creative quality of the aforementioned duo, something that Lewis-Potter has had to help with by dropping back into the defence from his usual position on the left wing.
As such, it was no surprise to see Brentford bring in another full-back in the January window and Michael Kayode, who could make his full Brentford debut on Saturday, was one of the outstanding under-21 performers in Serie A in the 2023/24 season when Fiorentina’s first choice right-back, Dodô, was out with a knee injury. The Italian will bring the typical physical defensive qualities we closely associate with Brentford but will hope to add a bit more thrust and purpose in attack. Kayode ranked third amongst full-backs in Serie A for success when tackling dribblers (72.9%) and in the top 15% for both blocks and tackles last season. His loan could be made permanent in the summer should he perform well enough to dislodge one of the more natural centre-backs and provide competition on both sides for Hickey and Henry as they return to the squad.
One thing that has often been the case with Brentford is a disparity between their home and away form and that hasn’t changed this season. The Bees are one of the best home sides in the Premier League, sitting sixth in the home table and on a positive xG difference (the difference between the quality of chances created and those conceded) of +4.2, but haven’t been able to replicate those levels away from the Gtech Community Stadium. This should provide some positive feeling ahead of this fixture as Brentford actually sit closer to the bottom of the away table in 18th place on a negative xG difference of -5.1.
It’s difficult to pick out weaknesses in the Brentford side as the incisive attacking talents and hard-working defensive efforts of Mbeumo and Wissa are well-supplied by Damsgaard ahead of a strong defensive unit with Christian Nørgaard, who ranks in the top 30% of Premier League midfielders for success rates in ground and aerial duels (62% and 58%), just in front of Collins who is usually partnered by van den Berg or the excellent Ethan Pinnock.
If there is one thing that the Bees don’t do particularly well, it would be controlling matches in the middle third with the ball. They rank 12th in the Premier League for possession this season but dead last for the proportion of touches taken in the middle third. Instead, Brentford are notably direct, taking the vast majority of their touches in the defensive and attacking thirds and this could be something that plays directly into new manager Graham Potter’s hands. This match could provide an opportunity for Potter’s side to take more control with the ball, using those successful pressing ideas to win possession before using the kind of suffocating on-ball shape and structure we saw Potter implement at Brighton.
When managing on the south coast, Potter’s side averaged 60.2% possession in his final season and although the current West Ham squad might not contain all of the right profiles to replicate such performances with the ball, there is more than enough progressive and press-resistant quality in the backline to provide a good base for the incredible array of brilliant attackers that are available to feature ahead. If that platform can be provided, then it will only take a half-chance for Jarrod Bowen or new striker Evan Ferguson to score, which would force Brentford to commit more bodies in attack and open spaces on the break for both Mohammed Kudus and Bowen to exploit. Nonetheless, Brentford have been incredibly adaptable and consistently impressive under Thomas Frank and remain one of the most challenging mid-table sides to face across the division for their blend of physicality, set-piece superiority, and tactical flexibility. Thus, West Ham will need to be at their best to overcome that and secure all three points.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
