Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels.
For their latest column, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine the contribution Luis Guilherme will make to West Ham United...
West Ham United have announced the signing of Luis Guilherme from Palmeiras. The 18-year-old Brazilian youth international joins just six months after helping his boyhood club clinch the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A title.
Despite his young age, Luis Guilherme has already achieved a great deal. Last season’s Brazilian title is a significant accomplishment, but it's just one highlight in a string of successes. Additional honours include the Campeonato Paulista (São Paulo’s state championship) and several youth titles with Palmeiras, and the South American U20 Championship with Brazil.
These successes are testament not only to his talent, but also his composure in high-pressure situations. A standout example of this was his 95th-minute winner against Independiente del Valle in the Copa Libertadores back in April. Showcasing a blend of calmness and brilliance rarely seen in players so young, he came off the bench with his side 2-1 down and half an hour still to play and successfully overturned the deficit to secure a crucial three points on the road.
As the first signing of the Julen Lopetegui era, Luis Guilherme’s arrival should excite West Ham fans. With a new head coach whose possession-based philosophy is built on half-space occupation and combinative play in the final third, this move presents the perfect environment for Luis Guilherme's development. This article will explore his key strengths, performance data, and how he might fit into Lopetegui’s expected system.
An obvious place to start when assessing Luis Guilherme and how he might fare in his first season in England is his positional versatility. Over the course of his senior career, with just over 1,600 minutes clocked since his senior debut in April 2023, he has played in several positions and looked consistently comfortable in each of them. This has included shifts in central midfield, the No10 role, and on both flanks, most frequently as an inverted winger on the right.
As an 18-year-old looking to continue his development, first-team minutes are crucial, so Luis Guilherme’s ability to provide competition in several positions will be a blessing for the team and the player. His versatility will maximise his involvement while allowing him to learn from similarly mercurial wide talents like Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus. As a left-footed attacking midfielder making a big move to the Premier League, it is hard to think of a better player to learn from than the Ghanaian star, who took the league by storm in his first season at West Ham.
Much like Kudus, it is the young Brazilian’s dribbling ability that first stands out when watching him play. While he might not show it quite as often as some of his compatriots, he is still very much blessed with that flair synonymous with o jogo bonito.
In Palmeiras’ title-winning 2023 season, Luis Guilherme showcased his dribbling prowess by averaging 8.2 dribble attempts per 90 with a staggering success rate of 71.6%, illustrating his exceptional ball control and ability to beat a man.
Statistically speaking, there has not been a more effective ball-carrier in Brazil’s top flight over the past year. As well as being the most successful dribbler, Luis Guilherme also ranked in the 96th percentile for progressive runs (4.8). For context, Kudus averaged 9.6 dribble attempts with 51.3% success in his debut Premier League campaign.
While Luis Guilherme’s dribbling numbers have seen a slight dip in the 2024 season (6.4 attempts with 63.2% success), his ability to navigate through tight spaces and beat defenders has remained impressive.
This is largely a result of his low centre of gravity, masterful ball control, electric pace, and strikingly explosive first step, which in combination allow him to create immediate separation from defenders and drive the team forward. Couple this with his impressive upper body strength, and you have a real threat in transition, as he can burst beyond the opposition, rides contact whenever possible, and wins the foul if not (2.2 per 90; 76th percentile).
This ability and willingness to draw fouls in dangerous areas will be especially useful to a side like West Ham, who possess both aerial dominance and first-rate set-piece delivery.
Taking the above into account alongside the current squad composition, an intriguing development pathway for Luis Guilherme could be as an interior central midfielder.
Though he has predominantly been used out wide by Abel Ferreira since breaking into Palmeiras' first team, he excelled playing as a ‘ten’ at youth levels, and has all the requisite skills to become a dynamic ‘eight’: ball-carrying prowess, spatial awareness, combinative play (particularly with full-backs), and resilience in taking contact. His experiences out wide should also give him an understanding of when to rotate with wide players to disrupt more rigid opposition defences.
Once he is on the ball in the final third, whether he’s carried it there himself or found a pocket of space in the channels to receive, Luis Guilherme provides a real creative spark that is crucial for breaking down stubborn defensive blocks. In a possession-based system, which Lopetegui has been shown to favour, players who can help the side convert possession into chances are essential. His expected assists return of 0.33 per 90 minutes (97th percentile) reflects his high-quality chance creation, suggesting that Luis Guilherme could record an assist every third game if his teammates finish these chances. Meanwhile, 2.1 shot assists per 90 (88th percentile) emphasises this proficiency in shot creation, making him an impressively potent offensive asset.
Additionally, his 2.7 box touches per 90 (88th percentile) are further evidence of the threat he possesses in the final third. This particular data point is indicative of his effectiveness in combining with teammates on the edge of the box. His acceleration allows him to play intricate one-twos and get on the end of balls in behind, while he can also rely on his deft touch to take the ball mid-stride and carry it into the penalty area. The latter is a real threat to opposition defenders, who are wary of being caught out by his dazzling footwork and conceding a penalty.
While dribbling is undoubtedly the most eye-catching facet of his game, Luis Guilherme's contributions extend well beyond his offensive prowess. Defensively, he is also remarkably effective, with a defensive duel success rate of 65.8% (95th percentile), highlighting his ability to win back possession. This is a product of his keen understanding of when to press opposition ball-carriers and his willingness to track back and help out defensively. This is another strength that he shares with his new teammate, Mohammed Kudus, whose 7.7 ball recoveries per 90 were league-leading among Premier League wingers and attacking midfielders in 2023/24.
When watching Luis Guilherme at Palmeiras, his aggressive pressing from behind as the opposition looked to progress into the final third was a particular standout. He excelled at limiting passing options and funnelling the opposition's build-up into specific areas, often forcing turnovers that led to dangerous attacking transitions for his team. Any manager would be pleased to have a player who can carry out such duties, but given Lopetegui’s track record of blocking central channels and forcing the opposition to build out wide, this seems a smart fit.
All this is to say that West Ham fans should be excited about the signing of Luis Guilherme, a move that makes perfect sense in the context of a side preparing to transition from a counter-attacking style to a possession-based one. His pace, trickery, and creativity will no doubt excite, and his ability to contribute in multiple roles will make him a valuable asset to Lopetegui, who in turn will be able to give him the minutes he needs to further his development.
Assuming he continues on his current trajectory, there is no reason to think that Luis Guilherme could not become one of Europe’s most exciting attacking midfielders, particularly with the added benefit of having players like Kudus and Bowen to learn from.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
