Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season.
Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Roy Hodgson’s Eagles this afternoon...
After missing Michael Olise for most of the first part of the season, his return just before the international break made it look as though Crystal Palace would finally be returning to being able to field their strongest eleven in the Premier League.
However, during their 2-1 loss to Luton Town last Saturday, the Eagles lost both Eberechi Eze and Cheick Doucouré to injuries with the Malian’s looking particularly serious as he left the field on a stretcher. If both were to miss extended periods of action, it would be a hammer blow to Roy Hodgson’s side.
Eze has contributed ten more key passes than any other Palace player in the league this season and Doucouré has produced 49 progressive passes, 4.8 per 90. In fact, Eze and Doucouré have combined to play 20% of Palace’s total progressive passes, showing just how crucial the duo are in enabling Hodgson’s side to progress play.
Despite missing two such key players, Palace can still rely on the blossoming talent of Olise and the defensive security usually provided by excellent all-rounders Joachim Andersen and Marc Guéhi. Jordan Ayew is also likely to return to the starting lineup and the Hammers would be wise not to underestimate his quality as proven with his dribble and finish back in December 2019.
So far this season, Palace have been one of the better defensive sides in the league with 17.7 xG conceded across the first 13 games – ranking sixth in the division for frugality. Despite this, the Eagles have won just four games so far and this has largely been down to their lack of potency in attack.
Hodgson’s side have produced the sixth least xG at 15.8 and have also underperformed in front of goal scoring 13 times, 2.8 behind their expected figure. Whilst the lack of chance creation could somewhat be put down to Olise and França’s absences, the poor finishing has been spread more evenly with eleven squad members underperforming their expected figures this season. By way of comparison, West Ham have just six players underperforming in front of goal at the same stage.
Usually Palace would produce far more impressive form at Selhurst Park, where the Holmesdale Road end generate one of the best atmospheres in the Premier League, but this has been reversed in 2023/24 with three out of four of the Eagles’ victories coming in away fixtures, including an excellent 1-0 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford.
One of the issues is around reliable right-back Joel Ward. What Ward lacks in finesse, he makes up for in commitment and durability but there’s no hiding his increasingly problematic lack of speed to deal with the Premier League’s top wingers.
This presents a bit of a conundrum for Moyes with the Scot tending to opt for Lucas Paquetá’s creativity on the left rather than the out-and-out speed of someone like Maxwel Cornet.
It’s likely that the positive dynamics generated between Emerson and Paquetá will be preferred to other options and that means that it will be vital for the left-back to push up aggressively on the left to exploit Ward’s relative lack of pace and make up for Paquetá’s absence when the Brazilian drifts inside.
Secondarily, discounting two penalties, half of the 16 other goals Palace have conceded this season have come from crosses or set-piece situations. This is particularly promising from a West Ham perspective as the Hammers have scored the joint-most headed goals in the division (7) and corners are a key area of quality with James Ward-Prowse’s delivery often proving to be lethal.
Palace have also struggled at times from the second phase following set-pieces or long balls as Everton and Newcastle were able to exploit with Vitaliy Mykolenko, Abdoulaye Doucouré, and Sean Longstaff’s goals. Here we see situations where Palace struggled to clear the second ball and it’s notable that two of these goals were conceded against Everton where Hughes started ahead of Cheick Doucouré.
Developing on this theme, it was noticeable that Luton were able to profit from breaking things up and making the game far scrappier last weekend. Palace had started well with some wonderfully fluid play between Doucouré, Olise, Eze and Édouard but Luton were increasingly direct and destructive and the Eagles struggled more as the game broke down and lost its flow. This is exactly what West Ham fans will want to hear as Moyes’ side have repeatedly found ways to come out on the right side of games like this and are more than capable of being a genuine threat from direct play – something that was fully on show last weekend when Mubama and Souček both forced the ball into the back of the net from Kudus crosses at the end of the match.
If West Ham can combine increased defensive robustness with patience and a healthy level of directness in attack then the Hammers could be on for another hugely important three points today.
