Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Ipswich Town’s visit to London Stadium could play out...
Last time Ipswich Town were in the Premier League, in 2001/02, Nickelback were topping the charts and South Korea and Japan were gearing up to host the first FIFA World Cup in Asia. Marcus Stewart had powered the Tractor Boys into Europe the year prior with a 19-goal season that guided them into fifth but the European dream was cut short with a UEFA Cup third round loss to Inter Milan as Ipswich succumbed to second season syndrome in a terrible campaign with just two wins outside of a flurry either side of Christmas. It has been a rough ride for the Tractor Boys for much of the time since then but the arrival of Kieran McKenna in 2021 finally got them chugging in the right direction as the young Northern Irish coach led them to back-to-back promotions through League One and the Championship for an incredible surprise return to England’s top-flight this year.
With Ipswich having experienced such a rapid rise through the divisions, it would be forgiven if fans of many of the Premier League regulars had low expectations of the east coast club this season, but with four consecutive draws coming against Fulham, Brighton, Southampton and Aston Villa, after an initial baptism of fire against the league’s best in Liverpool and Manchester City across the first two weeks, Ipswich have made it clear that they’re not just along for the ride and are here to compete and hopefully succeed at the top level.
This has been an impressive start for McKenna’s side after a summer with so much change as Kalvin Phillips, Ben Johnson and Jens Cajuste joined stars of the Championship Jacob Greaves, Jack Clarke, Liam Delap, Dara O’Shea, Sammie Szmodics, Arijanet Muric, Chiedozie Ogbene and Conor Townsend in a mammoth squad overhaul to give them a chance of remaining in the Premier League beyond just this year.
Greaves and O’Shea already seem to have made a good start to life together after the latter took over from Luke Woolfenden for their draw against Brighton and the pair formed the bedrock of a defensive effort that limited both Brighton and Villa to shots that came from outside of the box on average. Their partnership will be vital to everything that Ipswich hope to achieve this season. Szmodics and Clarke have both made promising starts too, with the former scoring a stunning opener at the Etihad in August and the latter causing huge problems for the Villa defence, managing six shot-creating actions, three carries into the final third, three successful take-ons, three key passes and one all-important assist for a player who has been something of a revelation up top in Liam Delap.
Delap joined from Manchester City this summer after a successful eight-goal loan with Hull City in the Championship last season, but no-one would have quite expected him to get off to the start he has in the Premier League with three goals already alongside carrying quality good enough to make many other Premier League forwards jealous. The signing of the striker looks like a masterstroke of a signing for McKenna’s side, with the change in level undoubtedly having a huge impact on their style and shifting them from their average possession of 53% in the Championship to just 39% so far this season.
With less control of the ball, Ipswich will be forced to be a more effective unit from counter-attacks and Delap’s 1.98 progressive carries, 0.79 successful take-ons, and 2.18 fouls drawn per 90 (all top 6% amongst forwards) spearhead this altered approach brilliantly. His equaliser last weekend against Villa, coming after a run down the left before a stepover that completely fooled Diego Carlos created the space to shoot, was a perfect example of the kind of goal he’ll need to score on many more occasions this season.
Another area that Ipswich will need to focus on even more intently is how they deal with set-piece situations at both ends. In attack, they must capitalise on the quality of delivery that left-back Leif Davis can provide and make the most of what has been a relative strength for McKenna’s team thus far. They currently rank third among Premier League teams for shots created from dead-ball situations, averaging 2.5 per match, with Davis’ left foot being the creator for most of them.
The threat is yet to convert into goals, and Davis may look to target the imposing centre-back pairing of O’Shea and Greaves to improve this conversion rate. The duo have recorded 81.1% and 58.6% aerial duel success respectively and will be vital at both ends for Ipswich’s ability to be effective from dead-balls. They’ve defended the box admirably over the opening run of matches, and despite conceding an average of 21 set-pieces per match, they manage to limit opponents to only 0.83 shots created via set-pieces per 90, a testament to their duel strength in the penalty area that places them as the second-best performing team across the Premier League.
Despite making better use of carriers on the break themselves, defending against them remains an area of weakness and West Ham could capitalise on this in deeper areas effectively. McKenna’s side, like many other clubs in the Premier League, often defend in a 4-4-2 shape and with Lopetegui usually opting for a 3-2-5 of sorts with the full-backs pushing high and one midfielder dropping back in possession, this could create opportunities for the wide centre-backs to be impactful bringing the ball forwards. For example, if Jean-Clair Todibo were able to carry up the right flank outside the front two with Lucas Paquetá or Carlos Soler pinning them narrow, this would force Ipswich’s left midfielder to step up to try and stop their progress and would naturally then generate a 2v1 for the advancing full-back and winger against the opposition full-back.
This could be particularly successful against Davis who, for all of his strengths in attack, has struggled to have the same impact defensively so far this season and has looked troubled at times when left overloaded. He was unable to stop Leon Bailey’s cross for Ollie Watkins’ goal in the Villa match, lost Adama Traoré on his goal for Fulham, and couldn’t keep up with Mohamed Salah for either of the Egyptian’s goals in the opener. Targeting that side of the Ipswich defence through Jarrod Bowen and a flying full-back could bear fruit for Lopetegui’s side this afternoon.
After four consecutive draws and top performances that have limited some of the better attacking sides in the division, it’s clear that Ipswich are no pushovers under McKenna this year despite their relative lack of top-flight experience. Lopetegui’s squad will have to be at their best to stop Davis and Delap combining in attack and must be patient enough to find the right moments to be aggressive with the ball to then find the necessary gaps to open and exploit.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
