Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how today’s visitors from northwest Spain could approach the game...
Until 12 March of this year, RC Celta de Vigo were managed by ex-Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Everton manager Rafa Benítez. The Spaniard, best known in England for his achievements with Liverpool and for a sensational stint at Newcastle United, where he performed miracles to keep the Magpies afloat for several seasons in succession, replaced former Swansea City manager Carlos Carvalhal in the Celta hot-seat in July of last year.
But after a winless run stretched from September to mid-December and a subsequent short-lived upturn in form ended swiftly with a crushing 0-4 defeat to Real Madrid in March, the Galician club replaced Rafa and hope that a change in management would be enough to keep Os Celestes in La Liga.
At that point, Celta were two points above the drop and eighteenth-placed Cádiz had just beaten Atlético Madrid 2-0 to add to the pressure. Claudio Giráldez González wasn’t well known outside of Galicia either, but the former Atleti youth left-back, who spent the vast majority of his career in the lower leagues, was entrusted with the job after a successful period in charge of Celta’s B side, Celta Fortuna.
Giráldez had put up a 46% win rate in the Primera Federación over two seasons after moving up from managing the Under-19s and had worked with many of the young players in the Celta side, including Academy graduates Carlos Dominguez, Hugo Álvarez, and Hugo Sotelo. And despite his relative inexperience at the top level, Giráldez confounded any lack of expectation with five wins in those final ten games, three of which came against Athletic Club, Villarreal and Sevilla. This positive run of form left the team 13th at the end of the season, and it was no surprise that he was given the opportunity to stay on for 2024/25 to see what he can do to build on such an impressive start.
That brings us to Saturday and the final pre-season test before a hugely important season for both of these sides begins. Celta will have hopes of restabilising in mid-table but will have to do so without the talents of super Danish striker Jørgen Strand Larsen who has exchanged Galicia for the West Midlands and Wolves.
Larsen was a key part of Giráldez’s side, scoring four times in that run at the end last season, but no Celta player is more important than former Liverpool man Iago Aspas. Affectionately nicknamed the ‘Messi of Moaña’, Aspas lives and breathes Celta and, except for that short jaunt through Merseyside onto Seville, he has spent his entire career performing wonders in a sky blue shirt.
Now 37, Aspas’ influence is surely set to at least begin to wane but his nine goals and ten assists last season still show that he has no intention of slowing down yet. If he were to, it would be hard to know where next to look but perhaps the aforementioned young winger, Hugo Álvarez, might offer some inspiration.
Born in Ourense, Álvarez had scarcely played for the senior side before Giráldez’s reign began but he became a key cog in the team that produced that excellent run of form. In fact, Giráldez trusts the 21-year-old so much that when things weren’t going to plan against Athletic in May, the only game in which the manager hadn’t started him since taking over, Álvarez was brought on at half-time and the youngster instantly repaid that faith, delivering a fantastic assist and a stunning goal to turn things around and secure a vital win for the club.
Giráldez hasn’t just given greater responsibility to young players since coming in, he has also switched the system from Benítez’s 4-4-2 to a 3-4-3 that has better enabled the side to step up the pitch and press more aggressively. This change saw Celta’s PPDA (Passes per Defensive Action) drop from an average of the 13.66 seen under Benítez to 11.42 – a figure that leaves Os Celestes ranked alongside Real Madrid for defensive proactiveness. This increased aggression – where the striker drops to mark the six whilst the wing-backs step up to join the press with the central midfielders also jumping forward, sometimes going completely man-to-man in midfield – has played a huge part in a massive improvement in Celta’s defensive numbers.
Since Giráldez implemented these changes, Celta have stopped conceding 1.27 non-penalty expected goals per 90 and have dropped to 1.1, limiting opposing teams’ chance generation from open play passes far more successfully and falling into the bottom 20% across the top five European leagues for the proportion of chances they give up in this fashion.
Conversely, things have worsened when assessing how vulnerable the side are when faced with dribblers and set-piece defence hasn’t improved either with the Galicians ranking first in Europe’s top five leagues for the proportion of shots they conceded from dead-balls (12.62%). These are two things that will make good reading for Hammers fans with Kudus and Summerville just two of West Ham’s many outstanding dribblers and James Ward-Prowse being one of the best set-piece takers in the world.
This should be a fascinating game as two coaches attempt to implement more intense pressing approaches better enabling their sides to control the game with the ball rather than without it. The threats of Álvarez, Aspas, and summer arrival Borja Iglesias will give West Ham much to think about, but Lopetegui’s side should be confident in their ability to exploit Celta’s weaknesses, hopefully securing a victory to move into the start of the 2024/25 Premier League season on a positive note.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
