Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can become the first team to beat Bayer Leverkusen this season, and secure a place in the UEFA Europa League semi-finals...
With a 2-0 deficit to overcome in the second leg, David Moyes’ team have a lot to do against newly-crowned Bundesliga 2023/24 champions Bayer Leverkusen. Despite keeping the tie in the balance for much of the first leg in Germany, with both Leverkusen goals coming in the final ten minutes, West Ham were largely nullified as an attacking force and will need to reverse this to have any chance of progressing to the last four.
Now 43 games unbeaten under former Liverpool and Real Madrid midfielder Xabi Alonso, Die Werkself are comfortably one of the best club sides in world football. Alonso has implemented a high-risk, high-reward strategy that has necessitated on-pitch perfection from his players, and his squad have delivered in stunning style. In the first leg, we saw just how aggressive they can be with all three centre-backs advancing to the edge of the penalty area at times to squeeze the space and make it impossible to break out and maintain any kind of possession.
Of course, this theoretically opens your team up to the threat of direct counter-attacks, but Leverkusen’s counterpress was so well executed that they were rarely troubled and only conceded one shot in the entire match. Michail Antonio did manage to cause problems for Jonathan Tah, but it was difficult to defend in the numbers necessary to stop Leverkusen creating in open play while getting enough support forward to actualise any substantive threat on the break.
The key battles here are in the wide areas as Leverkusen’s lateral centre-backs step up extremely aggressively to support the press and force turnovers. It’s when the wide receivers can hold off this pressure, or spin away, that opportunities to exploit Leverkusen’s aggression open up. Lucas Paquetá would be of central importance to this as he is one of the strongest players in the squad when holding the ball up with pressure to his back, but with suspension ruling him out of the second leg there are big questions over who will come in to replace him in connecting defence to attack.
One player that played very well in the first leg and could have a big impact on the other flank is Mohammed Kudus. Like Paquetá, the Ghanaian is also excellent when faced with intense pressure and has the ability to roll inside before driving at the heart of the opposition defence. His directness will be a crucial part of any pressure-relieving counter-attacks, and his calmness in front of goal is needed more than ever as the state of the game necessitates totally clinical finishing when opportunities do arise.
While Leverkusen’s pressing intensity is a huge positive the vast majority of the time, there have been moments when the lateral centre-backs’ aggressiveness has been more problematic than helpful and both Hoffenheim and Freiburg scored in recent games through simple one-twos with the striker to exploit the opened gaps. In the Freiburg example, Christian Streich’s team managed to extricate themselves from the typically suffocating pressure, forcing the ball to one side before finding the naturally underloaded far side and Ritsu Doan. Doan then bounced the ball off Lucas Höler, who dropped out to the edge of the box to pull Piero Hincapié out of the backline, and the Japanese winger was able to run into the space behind the defender to convert.
Set-pieces might also be a very slight weakness. Almost half of the Bundesliga goals that Alonso’s side have conceded (eight) have come from set-piece situations and both Darmstadt and RB Leipzig scored goals earlier in the season by targeting the back post where headers back across goal caused chaos. When looking at the proportion of total xG conceded have come from set-pieces, Leverkusen sit bottom in the Bundesliga with a whopping 29 per cent coming from dead ball scenarios.
While we can highlight a few areas that might be worth targeting, there is no simple solution to unpicking this Leverkusen team. They’re an incredible group and deserve all the plaudits they’ve received for their outstanding work all season long. Equally, West Ham have proven just how good a side they can be under the lights at London Stadium in European competition over the last few years and Moyes’ side will need to find those levels (and a little more) to find a way through tonight.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
