Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur for the second time this season...
Sitting fifth in the league at the time of writing, Tottenham Hotspur have been rejuvenated this season under Australian coach Ange Postecoglou. After a pretty rudderless period with Antonio Conte at the helm, Postecoglou has completely shifted the focus at White Hart Lane from counter-attacking to possession-dominance and the improvement has been enormous.
The attacking metrics at the end of the 2022/23 season were pretty dismal for a team with Spurs’ quality; 1.38 npxG per 90 (7th), 13.5 shots per 90 (7th), 0.89 xA per 90 (8th), and just 28.2 passes into the final third per 90 (11th). With Harry Kane leaving for Bayern Munich in the summer, it would’ve been understandable if it had taken Postecoglou some time to shift these numbers in the right direction but there has been no such wait and Spurs have produced 1.74 npxG per 90 (4th), 15.4 shots per 90 (4th), 1.4 xA per 90 (3rd), and 42.1 passes into the final third per 90 (3rd) so far this season.
These upticks across the board are more than impressive and it’s no surprise that the fans have been impressed too, leading to much-improved harmony around the club and a greater belief providing stronger support when things haven’t quite gone to plan… One such occasion being back in December when West Ham managed to steal a 2-1 win at White Hart Lane, something only three other teams (Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Wolves) can say they have done.
One of the advantages of writing these articles in the second half of the season is being able to look back at those reverse fixtures and assess the positives and negatives to establish how West Ham could match, or improve upon, the first result. In this case, there are lots of positives to discuss and many of these focus around the way that the team defended.
For much of this season David Moyes has deployed a 4-2-3-1 but there have been a few instances in which the system has been tweaked to deal with the threats the opposition pose. Although the lineup was pretty much exactly what you might have expected for the time – Tomáš Soucek, Edson Álvarez, and James Ward-Prowse in midfield with Lucas Paquetá, Jarrod Bowen, and Mohammed Kudus up front – the shape was shifted slightly from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 with Ward-Prowse slotting into a deeper position alongside the two other central midfielders. This was likely done to combat Spurs’ inverting full-backs and stop Postecoglou’s team from being able to completely overload the centre of the pitch.
With Álvarez and Souček either side of Ward-Prowse, West Ham had two properly combative defensive midfielders to limit Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro’s influence in central positions, forcing Spurs to focus more of their play down the flanks and leading to Postecoglou’s team attempting 25 crosses, nine more than their season average of 16. This strategy then works in tandem with the defenders’ strengths in dealing with these situations, only six of those 25 Spurs crosses were completed, and with Spurs’ frontline options consisting mostly of wingers or ex-wingers less comfortable contesting aerials, the defenders do have the advantage in the duels.
As such, it’d be wise for West Ham to again focus on limiting opportunities to play through the centre and encourage Spurs to play down the flanks – albeit Álvarez is suspended tonight. Still, Postecoglou has incredible quality to call on in these areas and it’s therefore vital that the wingers track back and ensure that there isn’t too much time to judge crosses and this is especially important when considering that Spurs’ full-backs are more than capable of reverting to the wide spaces to assist in numerically overloading the backline. Here, the wingers are able to drift inside, forcing the defending full-backs narrower and without the wingers falling all the way back to help, there would be far too much space afforded to players with too much quality. Paquetá did an excellent job of this in the first fixture, little surprise when looking at his defensive metrics this season, and this makes him a strong choice to start on the left in this one.
What happens in midfield will be fascinating. Álvarez is suspended and Kalvin Phillips is the likely replacement but, given the successful implementation of a flatter three in that first match, there might also be an opportunity for Ward-Prowse to come back into the team with one of the front four dropping to the bench. The ex-Southampton man has the kind of energy required to get up and support the press before dropping back in between the two defensive midfielders to help block up the centre. His set-pieces could also be crucial as defending them has been a slight area of weakness for Spurs of late. Postecoglou’s side have conceded five goals from dead-ball deliveries this calendar year (all competitions) and it’s notable that both Manchester City and Everton profited from targeting the goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario.
Lastly, looking back at Ward-Prowse’s winner at White Hart Lane, Udogie’s involvement in Spurs’ build-up might also be an area worth targeting. In that game, a short back pass from Udogie to Vicario was pounced on by Bowen and his pressure allowed Ward-Prowse to win it back, play a one-two with the post, and slot into an empty net. Similarly, it was another pair of misplaced Udogie passes that led to both of Brentford’s goals in their 3-2 defeat against Spurs in January. Pressure is always a good way of getting the crowd going and Udogie, despite his outstanding ability, has shown a propensity for the occasional lapse in concentration.
This will be a tough game. Spurs are a very good side this season and have a multitude of attacking threats to unpick any defensive block, but Moyes’ side have pulled this off once already this season and, if they can match their performance level from that game, they will most definitely be in with a chance of picking up another top result.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
