Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Wolves’ visit to London Stadium could play out...
After finishing 14th last season and losing key players in Maximilian Kilman and Pedro Neto, it would be forgiven if Gary O’Neil’s Wolves had taken a few weeks to get going this season. But in reality it’s been a somewhat alarming start, as Wolves have conceded the most goals in the division and sit level on points with back-to-back promotion-winning Ipswich Town in the relegation zone at the time of writing.
Despite only recording 45.5% possession, O’Neil’s side do look to circulate and attempt to build through the thirds where possible. From goal-kicks, they’ll often look to incorporate goalkeeper José Sá in the deepest three, splitting the centre-backs and allowing Rayan Aït-Nouri and Nélson Semedo to either push on or drop deep in the wide areas. Using this group and the two midfield pivot players, Wolves are able to retain the ball in deeper areas to some degree, with the third highest defensive third touch proportion (38.4%) and seventh highest midfield third touch proportion (43.1%) in the league thus far.
When the team are able to gain ground and move into midfield, their structure maintains a 3-2 base where Aït-Nouri is asked to tuck into the backline whilst Semedo is encouraged to create width on the right. This then allows the right-winger, often Jean-Ricner Bellegarde this season, to drift inside and create an eventual front five. Their midfield pivot of João Gomes and André enables them to circulate well in the middle third as they both excel at retaining the ball, recording 88.5% and 96.5% completion rates respectively for passes under 15 yards whilst also ranking inside the top 25% of Premier League midfielders for long pass accuracy.
Whilst the ability of the midfielders to be reliable passers is notable, it seems Wolves lack a player who can break opposition lines, with both Gomes and André ranking in the bottom 37% of Premier League midfielders for progressive passes per 90 and the team ranking as the league's third worst passers into the final third overall.
Resultantly, Wolves record the second lowest proportion of attacking third touches across the Premier League, with only 19.7% of their touches coming in the opposition's third. Much of their sustained possession can culminate in long balls, which make up 15.1% of their total passes.
Still, O’Neil’s side have been surprisingly productive as goal-scorers, averaging 1.69 goals per match, the joint-sixth best rate in the league so far. The main man in attack has been Brazilian talisman Matheus Cunha who has racked up six goals and four assists, placing him sixth for overall goal-involvements among all Premier League players. However, in the case of both the Brazilian forward and Wolves as a whole, the underlying data suggests a significant level of attacking over-performance.
O’Neil’s side have outscored their non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tally by 8.7 goals, the league's highest rate and more than double that of second-placed Brentford. With Wolves producing an average of 1.02 NPxG per 90 this season, the league's lowest rate excluding the newly promoted sides, the data suggests we may begin to see their attacking output regress over time.
At the other end, Wolves have conceded the most goals in the division this season with 32. O’Neil’s side have regularly deployed a back five in seasons gone by but have opted for a more traditional 4-4-2 of late, potentially in response to a flurry of central-defensive injuries that forced O’Neil to shift Mario Lemina into the back line. This season's data would suggest that Wolves aren’t particularly intense in their attempts to win the ball higher up the pitch either (Passes per Defensive Action: 11.89, 14th in PL) and when they do look to jump onto opponents to try to force mistakes, André and Gomes can end up being overwhelmed.
As a result, the opposition seldom find it difficult to play through or cut out the midfield completely with long balls that force the defence deeper. This is particularly clear in the data where Wolves concede the third most progressive passes and second highest number of touches in their own third per 90 across the Premier League.
Whilst these numbers are far from where Wolves would like to be, their defensive performance does improve around the box thanks to some good individual duellers across the backline. West Ham fans will be more than familiar with the duel-domination provided by Craig Dawson, who sports an aerial duel success rate of 63% and ground duel rate of 78.6%, and the ever-present Lemina has similar rates of 65.4% and 76.2% respectively. Outperforming them both, however, is Toti Gomes, with the Portuguese defender winning 73.9% of his aerial duels and 77.8% of his ground duels across his eleven starts this season.
With this kind of duelling quality around the box, Wolves are able to limit the quality of chances they concede so well that they shoot up towards mid-table in this area. They concede the sixth-most NPxG (1.54) and seventh-most shots (14.31) per 90, but are only ninth worst performers for the quality of those shots, suggesting that even if they’re conceding opportunities in significant volume, they’re effective at limiting the number that become big chances.
With West Ham and Wolves producing multiple goal-filled games this season as both teams have failed to impress defensively, this has the potential to be an entertaining match. Whilst defensive organisation has been known to go amiss for both sides, the sheer talent of the attackers often remains irrepressible and the home team will hope to come out on top to avoid being drawn into the scrap at the bottom going into the festive period.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
