Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United will provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels over the course of the 2023/24 season. Here, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine West Ham United’s clash with UEFA Champions League qualifiers Aston Villa…
After a period of uncertainty followed former captain and local inspiration Jack Grealish’s move from Villa Park to Manchester in 2021, Aston Villa finally started on an incredible upwards trajectory when Unai Emery took the reins in October of 2022. At that point, the Villans were precariously positioned just one point above the relegation zone but Emery, who hails from the same small province in Spain that Mikel Arteta, Andoni Iraola, and our very own Julen Lopetegui also call home, has brought forth a revolution in the West Midlands that has taken Villa all the way to the bright lights of the UEFA Champions League.
Not that he had anything much to prove with a CV listing clubs such as Paris Saint-Germain, Sevilla and Arsenal, his failure to truly convince with the last of those three perhaps left him with a reputation to repair in England. And Emery has done far more than just that with what he has achieved over the last two years. In fact, he must surely be looked upon now as one of the best managers, not just in this league or in Europe, but in the whole world.
Tactically, Emery has often been seen as a conservative sort of manager but his approach with Villa has been more swashbuckling than the timidity that would imply. Often lining up in a 4-4-2, Villa have become more and more comfortable as a ball-dominant side, happy to take their time in deep build-up with confidence in the defence-stretching channel-running ability of their forwards and the positional understanding and technical quality of their wide players.
The positioning of those wide players is crucial as the questions they can ask of their opposition markers can, in effect, generate space through doubt and following overcommitments or equally impactful lack of action. They do this by tucking into the half-spaces, either drawing full-backs out or pulling midfielders back, leading to free space or free receivers. A dangerous proposition when space exploiter in chief Ollie Watkins is in the team alongside threatening half-turn specialists like John McGinn, devastating carriers and creators like Leon Bailey, and midfield dynamos with outstanding progressive quality like Youri Tielemans or new duo Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley.
This combination of threats alongside the patient build-up enabled by cool heads at the back makes Villa awkward to defend against. Commit too aggressively and you risk the wrathful near-post finishing of Watkins on fast breaks and sit off too passively and you risk someone like Onana charging upfield before releasing to any one of those deadly attackers around the box.
Getting the press right will be challenging but there are a couple of counterbalancing issues that Lopetegui might be able to drill into for maximum benefit today and the first of those centres around Villa’s difficulties defending against dribblers. With Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paquetá, Crysencio Summerville, Emerson Palmieri and Luis Guilherme all in the squad, Lopetegui has an array of outstanding dribbling threats in his team and, if these players can be at their most effective with the ball at their feet, they could easily have an outsized impact on the game.
This is because Villa rank in the bottom 12% for allowing carries into the penalty area amongst teams in Europe’s top five leagues, resultantly conceding the fourth highest ratio of shots from take-ons in the Premier League (6.46%). Notably, both full-backs most likely to start, Lucas Digne and Matty Cash, recorded uninspiring data when facing dribblers last season with 56.8% (52nd percentile) and 49.2% (27th percentile) success in the tackle respectively. And with Kudus likely to start on the left – the Ghanaian produced 4.48 successful take-ons per 90 last season with only Manchester City’s Jérémy Doku ahead – Lopetegui might look at that left side as an area to focus on.
If those dribbling threats are unable to carry into the penalty area to shoot themselves, crossing could be more promising than usual against Emery’s side too. Although Villa do manage to stop crosses more effectively than most, if teams are able to find crossing opportunities against them, these situations can be productive due to the lack of aerial duelling quality in the Villa backline. Ezri Konsa performed brilliantly for England at the Euros and he tends to carry his side in this department with 68.2% aerial duel success, ranking well above his colleagues in the centre of defence (Pau Torres: 51.1%, Diego Carlos: 44.7%). But new signing Niclas Füllkrug will hope to find space in the box and dominate his opponent when the right ball does come in, something the German has proven he can do at the very top level in the Champions League.
Perhaps that lack of outright dominance in this area was one of the reasons that Onana was so keenly sought as the Belgian brings height and near-total aerial superiority to the heart of the Villa team, something that will make a huge difference to their ability to defend both set-pieces and crosses with Onana winning 74.3% of his aerial duels last season and ranking fourth in the entire division in this regard.
Clearly, despite the loss of two stars from last season in Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby, Emery’s Villa are a hugely challenging side to best. As with any team though, there are weaknesses to be exploited and West Ham must find those gaps and widen them into rich veins to find success in the first match of this season.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.