Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United can get the better of Rob Edwards’ Hatters...
Currently three points behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, Luton Town must win today to be in with a chance of avoiding relegation on the final day when they face Fulham at Kenilworth Road whilst simultaneously hoping that Forest fail to win both of their remaining fixtures against Chelsea and Burnley.
They may have only managed to rack up 26 points this season, but Rob Edwards’ team have done a brilliant job of staying in touch despite not having the extraordinary finances needed to make the jump from the Championship and keep pace with most of the rest of the division. Where others have spent to dig themselves out of holes, Luton have had to push themselves to produce the absolute maximum level of effort and application week in week out to find a point of difference in one of the most unforgiving divisions in world football.
Having that commitment to producing your best every single week can only ever be a good thing for any team but it shouldn’t serve to diminish the quality that Luton have in the squad and have been able to show this season. Former Everton prodigy Ross Barkley arrived on a free in the summer from Nice and has reignited his career with his impressive performances alongside Arsenal loanee Albert Sambi Lokonga in the heart of Luton’s midfield. And there have been impressive performances from Alfie Doughty, who joined from Stoke City in 2022, and Elijah Adebayo, who has risen all the way to the Premier League from League Two after departing Fulham’s Academy for Walsall in 2019. Similarly, Carlton Morris has proven himself to be a handful at any level with ten goals this season to follow a top-scoring 20 in the Championship last time out.
If we’re to start with the areas of focus for West Ham in terms of negating the opposition threats, those strikers are probably the best place to begin. Under David Moyes, West Ham have typically set out to defend the centre of the pitch extremely well and force teams into the wide areas to cross with full trust in the centre-backs’ ability to defend the box, clear, and launch counter-attacking opportunities (perhaps with a little help from the positionally and aerially outstanding Tomáš Souček). Unfortunately, these previous areas of strength haven’t been quite as good this season and West Ham have dropped down the league rankings for success from aerial duels (-2.22% from 2020/21 to 50% and into the bottom half of the league table for the first time in four years).
Two percent might seem like a very small difference but there are bigger jumps contained within the squad average and those have mostly been seen in the centre of the defence where the current group haven’t quite been able to replicate the incredible level set by the Craig Dawson and Kurt Zouma partnership of old that saw both finish inside the top 15 players in the division for aerial duel success (69.1% and 68.9% respectively) in 2020/21. This is a key concern ahead of the Luton match. Where other teams might struggle when forced into the wide spaces – perhaps lacking in the attacking profiles necessary to truly maximise the threat of presentable crossing opportunities and additional set-pieces – Luton are one of the strongest teams in the division in these areas.
Set-pieces will certainly be important as Luton have been struggling badly in this area of late. Wolves, Brentford, and Manchester City have all scored from corners in recent weeks in three matches where Luton managed to concede an eye-watering 12 goals. As such, it would be no surprise to see James Ward-Prowse return to the starting eleven to provide quality supply from dead-ball situations.
Looking at counter-attacks is a slightly different kettle of fish. Whilst Luton have struggled at times in this area, the fact that they play a back five with a rest defence unit of three centre-backs retained makes it harder for an isolated striker to be quite as effective as a channel-running focal point. In Brentford’s 5-1 victory at The Kenny a few weeks ago, we saw the value of having a striker that drops off to pull defenders out. For the second goal in that game, Wissa dropped into midfield and dragged former Hammer Reece Burke out of position before spinning and exchanging with Mikkel Damsgaard to drive into the newly vacated space. He then found Bryan Mbeumo out wide and drove into the centre of the box to slot the Cameroonian’s cutback into the back of the net.
This would present an interesting question ahead of the match over Michail Antonio’s positioning in settled attacking play. Given that Antonio is keener to make runs in behind and attack the channels, it isn’t so much his game to make the kind of darts into midfield that can break up the security of the back-five defensive line. The Jamaican has moved over to the left at times in recent matches and we could see this happen again today with Mohammed Kudus drifting into the centre to present a different kind of problem for the Luton backline.
Either way, having extra runners to attack the box will be crucial and if Moyes’ side can find their best level from crossing positions – from set-pieces and in open-play – then it’ll be difficult for Luton to stop conceding the kinds of chances that West Ham are capable of converting.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
