Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how the Saints’ visit to London Stadium could play out...
Rooted to the foot of the table and already relegated to the EFL Championship, Southampton are on course to record one of the worst Premier League points tallies in history this season. The Saints are currently sat on ten points, one point behind Derby County’s eleven-point 2007/08 season and, with six games to go, the sole focus is to pick up at least two more points and avoid the infamy of being the worst Premier League side ever.
Joined by both Ipswich and Leicester in the relegation zone, the gap from the Championship to the Premier League has never felt bigger. And whilst Southampton can be somewhat forgiven for finding themselves at the bottom – Leicester finished ten points ahead of them as Championship league-winners last season and are only seven points ahead in 19th at the time of writing – the manner in which they have sunk to this level has been the biggest source of disappointment.
Russell Martin’s possession-dominant style may have helped them be the second-most dominant Championship attack last season with 1.73 xG per 90, a tally that would rank fifth in the Premier League right now between Manchester City and Newcastle, but the risks taken with the ball also led to them conceding the third-most goals of any team inside the top ten, behind Preston (67) and Norwich (64) on 63. This perhaps should have been more instructive as to the issues they would go on to face in the Premier League. With less time on the ball in build-up against aggressive opposition pressing approaches, Southampton’s players were even less able to translate Martin’s ideas without making mistakes in areas that regularly result in goals conceded.
Losing 13 of their first 17 games and going on to make 47 errors leading to opposition shots (the most in the division), it was no real surprise when Martin was sacked in December. His replacement, ex-Torino manager Ivan Jurić, was brought in with a clear focus on returning to the defensive basics, stopping the team conceding so often from their own errors in possession and helping them to achieve a more consistent level. The Croat first took charge in the reverse of this fixture at St Mary’s where he brought both Lesley Ugochukwu and Paul Onuachu into the starting lineup. The performance that followed was cause for some optimism, even in defeat. The Saints generated more xG than they had in their three previous fixtures and had more shots (18) than in any other Premier League game beyond the first day against Newcastle (19).
Unfortunately, that optimism was short-lived as five consecutive losses against Crystal Palace, Brentford, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle followed. With six losses in his first six games in charge, belief in Jurić’s ability to turn things around had already fizzled out and it was a slow march to his eventual sacking four months later after relegation against Spurs. This puts Simon Rusk back in the hotseat in a challenging position to rebuild confidence going back into the Championship with a need to find a somewhat successful blueprint between the offensive and defensive extremes of Martin and Jurić.
In order to do this, he’ll surely turn to those players that have managed to shine despite the gloom on the south coast this season. Nineteen-year-old Academy product Tyler Dibling has forced his way into the team through a combination of the intensity of his attacking play and highly technical, slalom-style dribbling that is unique to the Southampton squad. In the data, Dibling not only stands out from his teammates, but measures up to some of the Premier League’s most talented wingers when it comes to ball-carrying. His average of 2.33 successful take-ons per 90 places him within the top 15% of Premier League wide players, and Dibling is productive upon the culmination of his dribbles, generating a top-ten per 90 rate for shots created via take-on attempts among Premier League wingers, even ahead of Bukayo Saka.
Summer signing Mateus Fernandes has also impressed. The Portuguese midfielder has scored twice and assisted three times whilst featuring in all positions across the midfield due to his ability as an all-rounder. Excelling against attacking midfielders for his defensive output, where he records some of the highest numbers of ball recoveries (5.79 per 90) and tackles (2.84 per 90), and equally outperforming more defensively-minded midfielders for attacking output, where he produces a good number of successful take-ons (1.61 per 90) and progressive carries (2.5 per 90), Fernandes has been one of the most impressive players in the Southampton team this season.
Clearly, despite Southampton’s general malaise, defending against dribblers will be key in Saturday’s match. With Kamaldeen Sulemana, Joe Aribo and Kyle Walker-Peters all also adept carrying threats, Graham Potter’s side will need to be strong in the tackle to limit Southampton’s routes forward. Achieving this could limit the Saints to hopeful crosses for Onuachu or Cameron Archer, leaving Maximilian Kilman and Konstantinos Mavropanos in battles that they will only revel in (both sit inside the top 20% of Premier League centre-backs for their percentage of aerials won).
Given Southampton’s 73.4 xG conceded this season, almost ten more than any other team, things should be simpler in attack. After Lucas Paquetá’s brilliant second half performance last week at Anfield, Potter will hope the Brazilian can replicate his best defence-splitting form with Niclas Füllkrug finally set to return to the fold alongside Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, completing the dangerous frontline assembled in the summer that we have frustratingly had such little opportunity to see this season.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
