Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine the contribution Evan Ferguson could make to West Ham United...
West Ham United have announced the loan signing of Evan Ferguson from Brighton and Hove Albion for the remainder of the 2024/25 Premier League season. The Irishman joins to provide instant impact up front, where both Niclas Füllkrug and Michail Antonio remain sidelined with injuries, as Graham Potter hopes to generate momentum and push up the table in the second half of the season after a difficult start under Julen Lopetegui.
After signing for Brighton from Irish club Bohemians in 2021, Ferguson quickly established himself as one of the best under-21 strikers in the Premier League. Producing 18 goals in all competitions in Premier League 2, he didn’t have to wait long for his first-team breakthrough and scored his first in a 2-4 defeat to Arsenal in just his third Premier League appearance midway through the 2022/23 season. Ferguson went on to score another five goals and provide two assists in what remained of that season, getting Premier League fans to really stand up and take notice with a brace towards the end of the season against Southampton, where he hit his shot for the first goal with such power that it went straight through goalkeeper Alex McCarthy.
Whilst the numbers might not seem outstanding at first glance, it’s important to remember that they show what Ferguson was producing as an 18-year-old in just his first real taste of senior football. His wider record of 13 goals and two assists in 60 Premier League appearances for Brighton, is incredibly impressive given that he’s only played 2,574 minutes over that period – fewer than Jarrod Bowen from last season alone. In fact, comparing the two over their entire Premier League careers so far reveals a goal every 303 minutes for Bowen, whilst Ferguson sits on an outstanding rate of a goal every 198 minutes – one in two as a teenager.
If Ferguson’s goals record alone isn’t enough to generate excitement, the underlying data from last season might do just that. The Irish striker ranked in the 66th percentile amongst Premier League strikers for aerial duelling success (41.9%) and in the 89th percentile for short passing completion (86.7%), indicating his above average ability to win duels and hold the ball up, qualities that are rarely found in younger strikers facing some of the world’s best central defenders.
Ferguson’s talent in this area was clear to see on his very first Premier League goal where he chased down a long ball forward from Lewis Dunk, shoved William Saliba out of the way, and slotted home through Aaron Ramsdale’s legs. This sequence alone showed how physically competitive he could already be as an 18-year-old but also how calm he was capable of being in front of goal. For comparison, seasoned target man and revelation this season, Chris Wood ranks in the 52nd percentile for aerial duelling success (43.3%) and in the 16th percentile for short passing completion (70%), indicating that the New Zealander wins duels just as well but doesn’t hold it up quite as successfully as Ferguson does despite the 13-year age-gap.
Wood’s incredible 17 goals this season have come with an impressive shots on target rate of 57.1%, up from his fifth-ranked 54.2% last season. The veteran striker has been very reliable in front of goal since his move to Nottingham Forest, matching or overperforming his xG in all three seasons, but even these impressive totals aren’t enough to beat Ferguson who ranked outright first in the Premier League last season for the rate with which he hit the target (60.6%). In fact, the only other strikers able to push close to this were Callum Wilson and Jean-Philippe Mateta. Like Wood, those two usually like to take their shots from close to goal, producing average shot distances of 10-13 yards showing their penchant for operating around the penalty spot, whilst Ferguson managed his impressive finishing from an average of 15.5 yards with a much greater willingness to take aim from distance, further underlining his impressive finishing skills.
His ability to crash goals in from distance was on show when he scored a hat-trick against Newcastle in February 2023 as his second goal that day saw him drop towards the midfield, receiving between the lines, before turning and whipping the ball into the bottom corner past Nick Pope from 30 yards out. That’s no easy feat either, with Pope long being regarded as one of the better keepers in the division for saving long-range efforts like this.
Since Potter arrived at West Ham, one major area of development has been the coordination and success of the team’s pressing attempts. In the new manager’s first home game against Fulham, both Carlos Soler and Lucas Paquetá profited from successful pressing against Fulham’s build-up. And this is another area where Ferguson might be able to help the side as the Irishman ranked in the 64th percentile last season for shot-creating defensive actions and in the 70th percentile for tackles in the middle third, indicating his willingness to chase defenders, force errors and get his team back on the attack where possible. These qualities could work particularly well in tandem with players like Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, who both thrive in counter-attacking situations with their pace and dribbling talent making it easy to generate high quality shooting chances against disorganised defences. Finally, with James Ward-Prowse returning early from his loan to Nottingham Forest, Ferguson’s 1.65 fouls drawn per 90 could dovetail well with the dead-ball quality provided by Ward-Prowse. With aerial targets like Konstantinos Mavropanos, Maximilian Kilman, Tomas Souček and Ferguson himself to aim for, set-pieces could be even more potent in the second half of this season.
Now 20, Ferguson is a hugely impressive young striker with a point to prove after injuries allowed others to nip ahead of him in the pecking order under Fabian Hürzeler at Brighton. Though Danny Welbeck, João Pedro and Georginio Rutter have all impressed this season, if Ferguson can replicate his previously reliable combination of hold-up qualities and dead-eyed finishing in Claret and Blue, he could easily prove any doubters wrong. With the man who gave him his debut in the dugout in East London, there’s arguably no better place for him to do just that.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
